9
Mehman
7yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 8 · OR 78
Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 50' Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: BHA65
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Dundalk | Paddy Harnett | BHA69 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | Dundalk | Gavin Ryan | BHA69 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | Dundalk | Conor Cusack | BHA68 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Cork | Gavin Ryan | BHA71 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | Gavin Ryan | BHA75 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | Chris Hayes | BHA76 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength93%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 04/06/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 28/07/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 25/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 09/10/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 69% | -0.15 |
| 23/10/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |