IvyArcIvyArc
3

Thunderbear

6yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 3 · OR 87

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 50' Handicap · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Solid efforts in handicap company last month but underlined his inconsistency when well beaten in listed race (9/2) at Naas since. Others more convincing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 97 · 5f GS 137 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 97 par6/092OR 971 @ Naas 11/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 97 · 5f205y Yie 133 · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 97 parC1 @ Chantilly 27/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 93 · 5f212y Ver 125 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 93 par27/10C1OR 931 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 103 · 6f Sft 138 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 103 par1 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 102 · 5f Gd 138 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 102 par27/041OR 1022 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 23rd of 27 · OR 98 · 6f GF 128 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 98 parBHA93 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 93 · 5f Gd 136 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 93 par5/0993OR 93BHA93 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 24 · OR 93 · 6f Yie 128 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 93 par1 @ Naas 10/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 92 · 5f205y Sft 133 · beat its mark10/10/2026 · OR 92 par10/101OR 92projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-10NaasJack Kearney18th8th0
2026-09-13CurraghJack KearneyBHA935th5th0
2026-09-05NavanJack KearneyBHA933rd3rd0
2026-06-20Royal AscotJames Ryan223th23th0
2026-04-27NaasJames Ryan111th11th0
2026-04-04CorkJames Ryan16th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/094/045/0910/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength44%

Delivery trend -8.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/20255th20/10%73%+0.73
11/10/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
27/10/20254th16/116%73%+0.57
04/04/20266th25/10%44%+0.44
27/04/202611th33/10%29%+0.29
20/06/202623rd100/10%15%+0.15
05/09/20263rd17/255%71%+0.16
13/09/20265th40/10%83%+0.83
10/10/20268th9/276%13%-0.64