6
Alissam
3yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 7 · OR 80
Dundalk · Happy Halloween Handicap · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Dundalk | Jack Kearney | BHA80 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Dundalk | Jack Kearney | BHA80 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Dundalk | Jack Kearney | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Dundalk | Jack Kearney | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 22/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength89%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 03/12/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 09/10/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |