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3yo Filly · 9-10 · Draw 9 · OR 79
Dundalk · Happy Halloween Handicap · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Wetherby | P J McDonald | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Kempton | P J McDonald | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-02 | Newcastle | P J McDonald | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Wolverhampton | George Wood | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Southwell | Oisin Murphy | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 23/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +6.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2025 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 03/11/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 02/12/2025 | 1st | 11/5 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 30/03/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |