Daler
4yo Gelding · 10-1 · Draw 2 · OR 81
Dundalk · Happy Halloween Handicap · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Dundalk | James Ryan | BHA81 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | Gary Carroll | BHA82 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | Gary Carroll | BHA83 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | Colin Keane | BHA83 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Ballinrobe | Colin Keane | BHA82 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Leopardstown | Gary Carroll | BHA75 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 30% | -0.58 |
| 17/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 09/10/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |