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8

Flame Of Forest

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 1 · OR 75

Dundalk · Happy Halloween Handicap · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark on second run for Karl Burke last year and good runner-up efforts on all-weather to end the campaign (handicap debut final outing). However, he hasn't offered much in 4 starts since joining current yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 25/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 12925/0445 @ Carlisle 19/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 6f195y GF 1305 @ Newcastle 27/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 1m5y Sta 13727/1054 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 80 · 1m142y Std 138 · beat its mark27/12/2025 · OR 80 par2 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 82 · 1m2f42y Std 116 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 82 par16/012OR 82BHA81 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR 81 · 1m2f Goo 121 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 81 parBHA80 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 80 · 1m Yie 134 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 80 par10/0680OR 80BHA80 @ Dundalk 25/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 80 · 1m2f150y Std 140 · below its mark25/09/2026 · OR 80 parBHA77 @ Dundalk 16/10/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m2f150y Std 127 · below its mark16/10/2026 · OR 77 par16/1077OR 77projClass-projected finish: 14th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16DundalkWayne LordanBHA779th9th0
2026-09-25DundalkWayne LordanBHA809th9th0
2026-06-10LimerickWayne LordanBHA807th7th0
2026-05-23CurraghWayne LordanBHA8117th17th0
2026-01-16NewcastleNicola Currie212th12th0
2025-12-27WolverhamptonS H James42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0427/1210/0616/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength60%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20257th33/10%45%+0.45
19/05/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
27/10/20252nd3/184%67%-0.18
27/12/20252nd13/266%91%+0.25
16/01/202612th20/10%8%+0.08
23/05/202617th28/10%16%+0.16
10/06/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
25/09/20269th33/10%38%+0.38
16/10/20269th25/10%20%+0.20