13
Golddream
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 14 · OR 75
Dundalk · Happy Halloween Handicap · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: BHA75
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Dundalk | Luke McAteer | BHA76 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Killarney | Luke McAteer | BHA75 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | Luke McAteer | BHA77 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Killarney | Luke McAteer | BHA77 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | Robbie Colgan | BHA80 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | Luke McAteer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 8-14 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -15.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 29/07/2026 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 09/10/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 58% | -0.26 |