12
Stars Will Shine
3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 3 · OR 76
Dundalk · Happy Halloween Handicap · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Naas | Colin Keane | BHA78 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | Fairyhouse | Ronan Whelan | BHA80 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | Adam Caffrey | BHA85 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | Oisin Murphy | BHA87 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | Chris Hayes | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Down Royal | Colin Keane | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 13-14 · tight 85/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 29/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 24/05/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 27% | -0.44 |
| 28/06/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 21/09/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 11/10/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |