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8

Captain Ciano

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 6 · OR 50

Dundalk · Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#13

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden who looked no closer to shedding that tag when fifth of 16 in handicap at Gowran (8.3f, soft, 22/1) 11 days ago. Others are much easier to warm to.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength19%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 10.4)

Highest class: BHA42
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA65 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 24th of 26 · OR 65 · 1m Hvy 135 · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 65 par15/0365OR 65BHA64 @ Gowran Park 08/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 64 · 1m1f100y Sft 134 · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 64 parBHA62 @ Navan 25/04/2026 · Pos 23rd of 23 · OR 62 · 1m2f40y Goo 132 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 62 par25/0462OR 62BHA58 @ Fairyhouse 05/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m1f190y Goo 141 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 58 parBHA53 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 53 · 7f211y Gd 135 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 53 par2/0753OR 53BHA60 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m Std 142 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 60 parBHA50 @ Cork 24/07/2026 · Pos 16th of 19 · OR 50 · 6f GF 132 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 50 par24/0750OR 50BHA44 @ Navan 07/10/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 44 · 1m2f30y Yie 126 · beat its mark07/10/2026 · OR 44 parBHA42 @ Gowran Park 19/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 42 · 1m75y Sft 127 · beat its mark19/10/2026 · OR 42 par19/1042OR 42projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-19Gowran ParkJames RyanBHA425th5th0
2026-10-07NavanJames RyanBHA4412th12th0
2026-07-24CorkJames RyanBHA5016th16th0
2026-07-12DundalkJames RyanBHA6010th10th0
2026-07-02BellewstownJames RyanBHA538th8th0
2026-06-05FairyhouseJames RyanBHA589th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/035/0624/0719/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength66%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/202624th14/126%8%-0.18
08/04/202612th20/10%8%+0.08
25/04/202623rd40/10%0%0.00
05/06/20269th22/10%38%+0.38
02/07/20268th20/10%50%+0.50
12/07/202610th16/116%31%+0.15
24/07/202616th33/10%17%+0.17
07/10/202612th14/126%27%+0.00
19/10/20265th22/10%73%+0.73