IvyArcIvyArc
12

Desert Of The Sea

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 42

Dundalk · Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#12

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden ran one of his better races when sixth of 14 in handicap at this course (7f) 14 days ago but remains easy to oppose for win purposes.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA42 @ Dundalk 06/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 42 · 1m Std 124 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 42 par6/0242OR 42BHA42 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 42 · 1m Std 124 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 42 parBHA42 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 42 · 7f Std 124 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 42 par20/0342OR 42BHA40 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m1f GF 122 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 40 · 7f211y Gd 122 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 40 par2/0740OR 40BHA40 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 40 · 7f42y Goo 123 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 40 parC8 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 35 · 7f Std 143 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 35 par10/09C8OR 35BHA46 @ Dundalk 18/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 46 · 1m Std 130 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 46 parBHA43 @ Dundalk 16/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 43 · 7f Std 126 · beat its mark16/10/2026 · OR 43 par16/1043OR 43projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16DundalkSadhbh TormeyBHA436th6th0
2026-09-18DundalkJames RyanBHA4611th11th0
2026-09-10LaytownJames Ryan?5th5th0
2026-08-06LeopardstownJames RyanBHA408th8th0
2026-07-02BellewstownRobert WheartyBHA4015th15th0
2026-06-18LeopardstownSadhbh TormeyBHA407th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0218/0610/0916/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 42/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength61%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/02/20263rd12/137%85%+0.48
06/03/20262nd7/282%92%+0.10
20/03/20267th8/158%54%-0.04
18/06/20267th22/10%54%+0.54
02/07/202615th11/142%0%-0.42
06/08/20268th33/10%56%+0.56
10/09/20265th80/10%50%+0.50
18/09/202611th25/10%23%+0.23
16/10/20266th20/10%62%+0.62