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4yo Gelding · 10-1 · Draw 3 · OR 59
Dundalk · Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (0-60) · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Dundalk | Terry Casey | BHA59 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | Curragh | Jamie Powell | BHA60 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | Fairyhouse | Jamie Powell | BHA61 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Cork | Terry Casey | BHA61 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Navan | Terry Casey | BHA63 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Killarney | James Ryan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 76/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength97%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.12 |
| 18/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 18/06/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 85% | +0.58 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.13 |
| 21/09/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.09 |
| 04/10/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/10/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 92% | +0.07 |