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9

Polanco

3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 8 · OR 49

Dundalk · Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Headstrong sort but arrives after back-to-back in-frame efforts here, most recently when fourth of 14 in handicap (11/4) at this course (7f) 14 days ago. Solid place claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 10.4)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Roscommon 01/07/2025 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR - · 7f94y Yie 1311/07C8C8 @ Gowran Park 02/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 7f Goo 131C8 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR - · 7f Goo 12918/09C8BHA63 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 63 · 5f Gd 124 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 63 parBHA60 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 60 · 6f63y Goo 130 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 60 par3/0660OR 60BHA55 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 55 · 7f94y Goo 128 · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 55 parBHA50 @ Killarney 13/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 50 · 1m3f73y Gd 130 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 50 par13/0750OR 50BHA47 @ Dundalk 18/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 47 · 1m Std 127 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 47 parBHA49 @ Dundalk 16/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 49 · 7f Std 130 · beat its mark16/10/2026 · OR 49 par16/1049OR 49projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16DundalkJulian PietropaoloBHA494th4th0
2026-09-18DundalkJulian PietropaoloBHA473rd3rd0
2026-07-13KillarneyLuke McAteerBHA5010th10th0
2026-06-30RoscommonLuke McAteerBHA5515th15th0
2026-06-03CurraghDonagh O'ConnorBHA6015th15th0
2026-05-09NaasWesley JoyceBHA6312th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/079/0513/0716/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/07/202513th50/10%14%+0.14
02/09/20258th200/10%36%+0.36
18/09/202514th150/10%13%+0.13
09/05/202612th50/10%27%+0.27
03/06/202615th66/10%18%+0.18
30/06/202615th50/10%0%0.00
13/07/202610th125/10%31%+0.31
18/09/20263rd33/10%85%+0.85
16/10/20264th11/486%77%-0.09