1
Serenity Blue
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 2 · OR 87
Dundalk · Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap · 1m 4f
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Dundalk | Reese Holohan | BHA80 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chepstow | Lewis Edmunds | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | K Shoemark | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | P J McDonald | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | J Mitchell | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | J Mitchell | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 31/07/2025 | 16th | 11/1 | 42% | 12% | -0.30 |
| 20/09/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 09/05/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 31% | -0.22 |
| 31/05/2026 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 9% | -0.54 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 09/10/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |