9
Tribal Moon
5yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 9 · OR 67
Dundalk · Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap · 1m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Dundalk | Sam Coen | BHA69 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | Dundalk | Patrick McGettigan | BHA72 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | Conor Stone-Walsh | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | Erin Dunseath | BHA103 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | Erin Dunseath | BHA73 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | Simon Torrens | BHA105 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 6-9 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 14/07/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 01/08/2026 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 25/09/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 16/10/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 54% | -0.28 |