9
American Gem
4yo Filly · 9-1 · Draw 3 · OR 49
Fairview · Welcome To Nelson Mandela Bay Open Maiden (F & M) · 5f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Fairview | M Yeni | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | Fairview | M Yeni | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Fairview | M Yeni | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Fairview | C Maujean | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Fairview | Tristan Godden | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | C Maujean | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1794% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 73/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength94%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 14th | 20/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 08/06/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 03/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 31/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 02/10/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 23/10/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |