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7

Among The Willows

3yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 5 · OR 55

Fairview · Welcome To Nelson Mandela Bay Open Maiden (F & M) · 5f 212y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

6/1 and blinkered for 1st time, sixth of 9 in maiden at Fairview (6f) 35 days ago. Makes turf debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairview 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Std 12622/05C8C8 @ Fairview 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f212y Std 13214/08C8C8 @ Fairview 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f102y Std 1309/09C8C8 @ Fairview 25/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Std 12625/09C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 15
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25FairviewKabelo Matsunyane?6th6th0
2026-09-09FairviewR Fourie?3rd3rd0
2026-08-14FairviewA Domeyer?3rd3rd0
2026-05-22FairviewR Fourie?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0514/089/0925/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1781% of fieldRange 9-12 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength41%

Delivery trend -9.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/05/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
14/08/20263rd9/488%67%-0.21
09/09/20263rd5/287%60%-0.27
25/09/20266th6/168%38%-0.31