14
Aurelian
4yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 1 · OR 39
Fairview · Welcome To Nelson Mandela Bay Open Maiden (F & M) · 5f 212y
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Fairview | C Maujean | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Fairview | C Maujean | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | Malesela Katjedi | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Fairview | Marco V'Rensburg | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairview | M Yeni | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Fairview | M Yeni | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 4-17 · tight 44/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength38%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/02/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 25/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 24/07/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 02/10/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |