5
On The Outside
3yo Filly · 9-4 · Draw 7 · OR 56
Fairview · Welcome To Nelson Mandela Bay Open Maiden (F & M) · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Fairview | M Yeni | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Fairview | M Yeni | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Fairview | Yuzae Ramzan | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fairview | M Yeni | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Fairview | M Yeni | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Fairview | Sandile Khathi | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1756% of fieldRange 8-17 · tight 62/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 40% | -0.15 |
| 06/03/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |