2
Winika
4yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 2 · OR 53
Fairview · Welcome To Nelson Mandela Bay Open Maiden (F & M) · 5f 212y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Vaal | Vusumzi Sithetho | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Turffontein | Goodman Fundile Dadamasi | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Vaal | Goodman Fundile Dadamasi | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Vaal | Jacey Botes | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Turffontein | C Maujean | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Turffontein | Nathan Klink | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1788% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength96%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 27/12/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 24/01/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |