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5

Storm Burst

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 8 · OR 23

Fairview · youcanbetonus! Maiden Plate · 6f 211y

#10

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden after 19 Flat runs. Last of 9 in maiden (25/1) at Fairview (7f) 30 days ago. Booking of Agrella a plus.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Vaal 20/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 13220/12C8C8 @ Vaal 08/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 130C8 @ Vaal 15/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 13215/01C8C8 @ Turffontein 26/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 132C8 @ Fairview 17/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Std 13217/07C8C8 @ Fairview 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 122C8 @ Fairview 04/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Std 1324/09C8C8 @ Fairview 11/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y GS 132C8 @ Fairview 30/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 13030/09C8projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30FairviewDezahn Louw?9th9th0
2026-09-11FairviewMalesela Katjedi?11th11th0
2026-09-04FairviewMalesela Katjedi?5th5th0
2026-08-07FairviewMalesela Katjedi?5th5th0
2026-07-17FairviewMalesela Katjedi?10th10th0
2026-02-26TurffonteinDenis Schwarz?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1226/024/0930/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-10 · tight 81/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength1%

Delivery trend -3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20258th66/10%36%+0.36
08/01/20269th125/10%33%+0.33
15/01/20266th50/10%29%+0.29
26/02/20267th33/10%25%+0.25
17/07/202610th20/10%0%0.00
07/08/20265th14/126%56%+0.29
04/09/20265th40/10%33%+0.33
11/09/202611th33/10%0%0.00
30/09/20269th22/10%0%0.00