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4

Lady Elliot

6yo Mare · 9-6 · Draw 8 · OR 63

Fairview · Tickets At Howler For The Betway Summer Cup Mr 74 Handicap · 6f 211y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

84%

Place Prob

66%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twelve runs since last win in 2024. 9/4, creditable second of 8 in handicap at Fairview (7f) 30 days ago. First run for yard after leaving A. G. Laird. Looks competitive on form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Vaal 22/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/01C7C6 @ Turffontein 07/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Turffontein 19/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 13419/03C7C6 @ Turffontein 09/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 116 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Turffontein 07/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 5f212y GS 1327/05C7C6 @ Turffontein 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Vaal 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS30/07C7C6 @ Vaal 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 115 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Fairview 30/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Std 115 · HIGHER CLASS30/09C6projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30FairviewGirish Samo-burthia?2nd1st+1
2026-08-27VaalPhilasande Mxoli?2nd1st+1
2026-07-30VaalG Lerena?3rd3rd+0
2026-06-04TurffonteinDiego De Gouveia?3rd3rd+0
2026-05-07TurffonteinM Yeni?8th8th−0
2026-04-09TurffonteinC Maujean?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/019/0430/0730/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength58%

Delivery trend -6.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/01/20262nd25/10%86%+0.86
07/03/20266th18/15%50%+0.45
19/03/20266th11/142%44%+0.02
09/04/20262nd13/266%83%+0.18
07/05/20268th3/184%13%-0.72
04/06/20263rd11/271%85%+0.14
30/07/20263rd9/276%83%+0.07
27/08/20262nd7/163%88%+0.24
30/09/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04