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5

Rules Of Conduct

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 6 · OR 68

Fairview · Tickets At Howler For The Betway Summer Cup Mr 74 Handicap · 6f 211y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner here in May. 100/1, 12 lengths seventh of 8 to Marchland in listed race at Fairview (8f) 12 days ago. Has good chance on pick of form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairview 13/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 4f214y Std 13213/02C8C8 @ Fairview 03/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 132C8 @ Fairview 22/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 5f212y Std 13222/04C8C8 @ Fairview 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Std 132C8 @ Fairview 22/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 5f212y Std 13222/05C8C7 @ Fairview 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 4f214y Std 132C5 @ Fairview 11/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS11/09C5C0 @ Fairview 18/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 6f211y Std 128C1 @ Fairview 18/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS18/10C1projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-18FairviewKabelo Matsunyane?7th0th+6
2026-09-18FairviewKendall Minnie?4th4th0
2026-09-11FairviewR Fourie?6th4th+2
2026-08-21FairviewA Domeyer?4th4th−0
2026-05-22FairviewR Fourie?1st3rd−1
2026-05-15FairviewR Fourie?2nd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0215/0511/0918/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength92%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/02/20263rd11/1094%50%-0.44
03/04/20262nd1/195%80%-0.15
22/04/20262nd1/398%75%-0.23
15/05/20262nd8/1196%89%-0.07
22/05/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
21/08/20264th11/893%25%-0.68
11/09/20266th9/276%44%-0.32
18/09/20264th28/10%25%+0.25
18/10/20267th66/10%14%+0.14