9
Scented Path
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 9 · OR 71
Fairview · Tickets At Howler For The Betway Summer Cup Mr 74 Handicap · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Fairview | Kyle Strydom | ? | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Fairview | Kyle Strydom | ? | 4th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Fairview | Kyle Strydom | ? | 4th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Fairview | Calvin Habib | ? | 10th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Fairview | Jeffrey Syster | ? | 9th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Turffontein | Marco V'Rensburg | ? | 9th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 89/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +16.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 03/01/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 19/02/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 29/05/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 10/07/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 02/10/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |