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2

Augusta Rosso

4yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 5 · OR 59

Fairview · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Mr 86 Handicap · 7f 210y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Eleven runs since last win in 2025. 8/1, fourth of 6 in minor event at Fairview (8f) 14 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength82%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Kenilworth 06/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS6/12C?C6 @ Fairview 22/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Std 115 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 06/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f102y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS6/01C5C0 @ Fairview 23/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Std 132C1 @ Fairview 27/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f210y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS27/02C1C4 @ Fairview 20/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f210y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Fairview 10/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 13210/04C?C6 @ Fairview 24/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Fairview 16/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 7f210y Std 13016/10C?projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16FairviewBongani Makhubo?4th4th0
2026-07-24FairviewR Fourie?7th7th+0
2026-04-10FairviewKendall Minnie?5th5th0
2026-03-20FairviewLuyolo Mxothwa?2nd0th+2
2026-02-27FairviewLuyolo Mxothwa?2nd-4th+5
2026-01-23FairviewR Fourie?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1223/0110/0416/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 30/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength60%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/12/202512th80/10%0%0.00
22/12/20257th5/174%14%-0.59
06/01/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
23/01/20267th6/492%0%-0.92
27/02/20262nd25/10%80%+0.80
20/03/20262nd25/10%80%+0.80
10/04/20265th25/10%20%+0.20
24/07/20267th7/282%33%-0.48
16/10/20264th13/266%40%-0.26