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5

Too Late My Mate

5yo Mare · 9-4 · Draw 2 · OR 76

Fairview · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Mr 86 Handicap · 7f 210y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

90%

Place Prob

65%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Didn't need to improve to win 8-runner minor event (28/10) at Fairview (8f) 28 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turffontein 21/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 13221/02C6C5 @ Turffontein 07/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y GS 118 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Turffontein 21/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS21/03C6C5 @ Turffontein 23/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 7f210y GS 116 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Fairview 29/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 6f211y Std 13229/05C6C6 @ Fairview 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f210y Std 132C6 @ Fairview 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Std 13221/08C6C6 @ Fairview 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f210y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 02/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS2/10C5projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02FairviewCraig Zackey?1st-1th+1
2026-09-09FairviewCraig Zackey?2nd2nd+0
2026-08-21FairviewCraig Zackey?2nd2nd−0
2026-06-19FairviewCraig Zackey?3rd4th−0
2026-05-29FairviewCraig Zackey?3rd4th−0
2026-04-23TurffonteinM Yeni?5th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0223/0421/082/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 80/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength95%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/02/20264th4/179%63%-0.16
07/03/20265th10/382%50%-0.32
21/03/20262nd13/891%83%-0.08
23/04/20265th15/890%43%-0.47
29/05/20263rd11/486%80%-0.06
19/06/20263rd2/189%67%-0.23
21/08/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
09/09/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02
02/10/20261st5/287%100%+0.13