8
Ain't No Sunshine
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 9 · OR 65
Fairview · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Mr 68 Handicap · 5f 212y
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Fairview | Kabelo Matsunyane | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Vaal | K De Melo | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | Brevan Plaatjies | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Durbanville | J V'd Merwe | 5 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kenilworth | Luyolo Mxothwa | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-02-11 | Durbanville | Luyolo Mxothwa | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength89%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/01/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/01/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/02/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/02/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 25/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 25/09/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |