4
Real War
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 1 · OR 70
Fairview · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Mr 68 Handicap · 5f 212y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
47%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength80%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Fairview | Kabelo Matsunyane | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Fairview | R Fourie | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-08-14 | Fairview | Kendall Minnie | ? | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Fairview | Charles Ndlovu | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | Charles Ndlovu | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairview | Charles Ndlovu | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 03/04/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 47% | -0.09 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 25/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |