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4

Basingstoke

5yo Mare · 9-7 · Draw 2 · OR 57

Fairview · Next Fairview Racemeeting Friday 6 November Fm 66 Handicap (F & M) · 5f 212y

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Latest win here in August. 6/1, creditable sixth of 12 in handicap at Fairview (5f) 14 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength69%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Fairview 05/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 4f214y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS5/06C7C6 @ Fairview 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Std 119 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 03/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS3/07C7C7 @ Fairview 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS7/08C7C7 @ Fairview 28/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 4f214y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 11/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS11/09C7C7 @ Fairview 18/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 4f214y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 16/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 4f214y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS16/10C7projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16FairviewJason Gates?6th6th+0
2026-09-18FairviewJason Gates?2nd1st+1
2026-09-11FairviewJason Gates?8th8th+0
2026-08-28FairviewJason Gates?5th5th+0
2026-08-07FairviewJason Gates?1st1st+0
2026-07-24FairviewJason Gates?5th5th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0624/0711/0916/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 9-13 · tight 75/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/06/20268th14/126%36%+0.10
19/06/20265th20/10%50%+0.50
03/07/20265th22/10%56%+0.56
24/07/20265th20/10%64%+0.64
07/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
28/08/20265th11/271%43%-0.28
11/09/20268th7/163%36%-0.27
18/09/20262nd15/261%91%+0.30
16/10/20266th5/174%55%-0.19