9
Caughtubysurprise
5yo Mare · 9-2 · Draw 10 · OR 55
Fairview · Next Fairview Racemeeting Friday 6 November Fm 66 Handicap (F & M) · 5f 212y
#10
Rank
Odds
125/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Fairview | Jason Gates | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-30 | Fairview | Eduan Muller | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Fairview | Jason Gates | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Fairview | Jason Gates | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Fairview | Jason Gates | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairview | Jason Gates | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 9-13 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 07/08/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 30/09/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 09/10/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |