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2

Icy Lancaster

5yo Mare · 9-8 · Draw 4 · OR 49

Fairview · Next Fairview Racemeeting Friday 6 November Fm 66 Handicap (F & M) · 5f 212y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twenty one runs since last win in 2024. 25/1, tenth of 13 in handicap at Fairview (6f) 21 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Greyville 18/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS18/114C7 @ Fairview 24/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Fairview 08/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS8/05C6C7 @ Fairview 05/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 4f214y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 01/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS1/07C7C7 @ Fairview 07/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 139 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f102y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS21/08C7C7 @ Fairview 30/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 09/10/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 5f212y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS9/10C7projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09FairviewEldin Webber?10th10th+0
2026-09-30FairviewEldin Webber?2nd1st+1
2026-08-21FairviewKaidan Brewer?6th5th+1
2026-08-07FairviewBongani Makhubo?3rd3rd+0
2026-07-01FairviewChad Little?5th5th+0
2026-06-05FairviewBavish Soodoo?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/115/0621/089/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/11/20256th10/382%29%-0.54
24/04/20267th10/147%25%-0.22
08/05/20267th28/10%33%+0.33
05/06/20266th11/142%55%+0.12
01/07/20265th9/153%20%-0.33
07/08/20263rd13/266%78%+0.12
21/08/20266th16/116%38%+0.22
30/09/20262nd18/15%86%+0.80
09/10/202610th25/10%25%+0.25