11
Lilac Snow
5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 36
Fairview · Next Fairview Racemeeting Friday 6 November Fm 66 Handicap (F & M) · 5f 212y
#11
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Fairview | C Maujean | ? | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Fairview | C Maujean | ? | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Fairview | C Maujean | ? | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Vaal | K De Melo | ? | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Vaal | Craig Zackey | ? | 9th | 9th | +0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Turffontein | Rachel Venniker | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 10-13 · tight 79/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 24/02/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.67 |
| 30/04/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 69% | +0.27 |
| 14/05/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 26/08/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 22% | -0.46 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 16/10/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |