1
Nightmareonelmst
3yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 62
Greyville · Bet With Colossus Pools Exclusive On www.tote.co.za Maiden Plate · 1m 1f 208y
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Scottsville | Anaas Mosaheb | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Scottsville | K De Melo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Greyville | Calvin Habib | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Greyville | M Yeni | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Scottsville | M Yeni | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Greyville | Craig Zackey | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 15-15 · tight 88/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -17.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 22/06/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 30/08/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |