Grand Occasion
5yo Mare · 9-3 · Draw 4 · OR 78
Greyville · Join The Race Coast Turf Club Today! Middle Stakes (F & M) · 7f 210y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Greyville | Yan Ting Quaada Leung | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Scottsville | Calvin Habib | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Greyville | Chad Schofield | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Scottsville | Mickaelle Michel | 3 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-27 | Greyville | Blaine Marx-jacobson | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Greyville | Mickaelle Michel | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 89% | -0.04 |
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 04/07/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 18% | +0.13 |
| 23/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 25/09/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |