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7

Miss Twinkle

5yo Mare · 9-3 · Draw 7 · OR 75

Greyville · Join The Race Coast Turf Club Today! Middle Stakes (F & M) · 7f 210y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

3-time C&D winner. Latest win here in August. 2½ lengths fifth of 6 to Grand Occasion in minor event at this C&D (good to soft, 9/4) 35 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Greyville 26/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 7f210y GS 13226/09C84 @ Greyville 12/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 12/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m209y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS12/1144 @ Scottsville 14/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m154y GS 131 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Scottsville 11/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f210y GS 12211/03C5C0 @ Scottsville 05/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m154y GS 1223 @ Scottsville 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS28/063C1 @ Greyville 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f210y GS 126 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Greyville 25/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 7f210y GS 12925/09C5projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25GreyvilleSerino Moodley?5th5th0
2026-08-07GreyvilleSerino Moodley?1st-3th+4
2026-06-28ScottsvilleSerino Moodley34th2nd+2
2026-04-05ScottsvilleK De Melo?10th10th0
2026-03-11ScottsvilleSerino Moodley?3rd3rd0
2025-12-14ScottsvilleK De Melo41st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0914/1228/0625/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
12/10/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
12/11/20254th11/271%63%-0.09
14/12/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
11/03/20263rd3/184%67%-0.18
05/04/202610th3/184%0%-0.84
28/06/20264th5/174%57%-0.17
07/08/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
25/09/20265th9/488%20%-0.68