8
Swiatek
5yo Mare · 9-10 · Draw 8 · OR 90
Greyville · Join The Race Coast Turf Club Today! Middle Stakes (F & M) · 7f 210y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼4
Strength100%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today:
Class gap: +3.9
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Turffontein | R Fourie | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Greyville | Callan Murray | ? | 4th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-06-21 | Kenilworth | S Veale | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Kenilworth | R Fourie | ? | 5th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kenilworth | R Fourie | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | Andrew Fortune | ? | 7th | 2nd | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength82%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 13/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 31/01/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 03/10/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |