7
Hop Hop Spinnekop
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 55
Greyville · Lucky Fish Turf Luck Class 4 (F & M) · 7f 210y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.6
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Greyville | Calvin Habib | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Scottsville | S Veale | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Scottsville | Mxolisi Mbuto | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Scottsville | S Veale | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Greyville | S Veale | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Kenilworth | S Veale | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength80%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 22/11/2025 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.08 |
| 30/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 25/09/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 63% | +0.07 |