5
Overnight
4yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 5 · OR 72
Greyville · Lucky Fish Turf Luck Class 4 (F & M) · 7f 210y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Greyville | Qiniso Ngcobo | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | Serino Moodley | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Scottsville | Serino Moodley | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Scottsville | Cole Dicken | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Scottsville | Cole Dicken | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Greyville | Calvin Habib | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength87%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 15/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 20/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |