4
Vixens War
4yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 4 · OR 72
Greyville · Lucky Fish Turf Luck Class 4 (F & M) · 7f 210y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Greyville | A Mgudlwa | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Greyville | A Mgudlwa | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Greyville | Mickaelle Michel | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Greyville | Craig Zackey | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Greyville | Craig Zackey | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Greyville | Chad Little | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 78% | +0.23 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 22/06/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 20/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/10/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |