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11

Fortress Of Fire

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 11 · OR 90

Greyville · Tote For The Win A Stakes · 5f 212y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

3 wins from 6 runs this year. Career best when winning 14-runner handicap (20/1) at this course (5f, good) by ½ length from Lion Rampart. Off 96 days.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.1 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Greyville 22/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f212y Std 13222/06C?C5 @ Greyville 12/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Std 1324 @ Scottsville 14/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 5f212y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS14/1244 @ Greyville 02/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Scottsville 01/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f212y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS1/033C1 @ Greyville 27/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Greyville 13/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Std 13613/05C5C0 @ Greyville 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Std 132C4 @ Greyville 26/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS26/07C4projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26GreyvilleRachel Venniker?1st0th+1
2026-06-20GreyvilleRachel Venniker?1st1st0
2026-05-13GreyvilleRachel Venniker?3rd3rd0
2026-03-27GreyvilleRachel Venniker?6th1st+4
2026-03-01ScottsvilleRachel Venniker32nd0th+2
2026-01-02GreyvilleRachel Venniker41st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/062/0113/0526/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength91%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/06/20252nd5/174%83%+0.10
12/11/20253rd16/116%78%+0.62
14/12/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
02/01/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
01/03/20262nd2/189%88%-0.02
27/03/20266th8/158%29%-0.29
13/05/20263rd7/282%71%-0.10
20/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
26/07/20261st16/116%100%+0.84