IvyArcIvyArc
2

Position Of Power

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 2 · OR 97

Greyville · Tote For The Win A Stakes · 5f 212y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

93%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

4 wins from 7 runs this year. Career best when winning 9-runner minor event at this C&D (good to soft, 18/10) 84 days ago by 1½ lengths from Thisiswhatitmeans.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Greyville 18/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS18/114C5 @ Greyville 05/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 122C5 @ Scottsville 18/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 4f214y GS 12218/02C54 @ Greyville 22/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Sft 136 · HIGHER CLASSC4 @ Scottsville 26/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR - · 5f103y Sft 115 · HIGHER CLASS26/04C4C5 @ Greyville 13/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Std 1292 @ Greyville 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 4f214y GS 115 · HIGHER CLASS13/0623 @ Greyville 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Greyville 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f212y GS 1227/08C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07GreyvilleK De Melo?1st1st0
2026-07-12GreyvilleK De Melo31st-1th+2
2026-06-13GreyvilleAnaas Mosaheb22nd-1th+3
2026-05-13GreyvilleK De Melo?1st1st0
2026-04-26ScottsvilleM Yeni?9th8th+1
2026-03-22GreyvilleK De Melo41st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/1122/0313/067/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 81/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/11/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
05/12/20257th11/893%40%-0.53
18/02/20263rd10/382%80%-0.02
22/03/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
26/04/20269th6/168%47%-0.22
13/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
13/06/20262nd11/486%92%+0.07
12/07/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
07/08/20261st13/891%100%+0.09