3
In The Red
3yo Gelding · 8-4 · Draw 3 · OR 79
Greyville · Live It. Love It. Own It. www.racecoast.co.za B Stakes · 5f 212y
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Greyville | Rachel Venniker | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Scottsville | Nicholas Patel | ? | 14th | 18th | −4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Scottsville | Mickaelle Michel | ? | 7th | 2nd | +4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Greyville | Calvin Habib | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Scottsville | Callan Murray | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-01-11 | Scottsville | A Mgudlwa | ? | 8th | 12th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 25/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 11/03/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 14th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |