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12

Magma Magic

6yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 12 · OR 48

Greyville · Live It. Love It. Own It. www.racecoast.co.za B Stakes · 5f 212y

#10

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. 3 wins from 5 runs this year. Latest win at Scottsville in May. 14/1, eleventh of 12 in handicap at Greyville (8f, AW). Off 118 days. Down in trip. Others more persuasive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Greyville 16/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m209y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS16/0744 @ Scottsville 24/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 25/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS25/1145 @ Scottsville 14/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 6f211y GS 1374 @ Greyville 18/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS18/0144 @ Scottsville 15/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 7f101y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 22/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/0344 @ Scottsville 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS4/074projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04GreyvilleTristan Godden411th10th+1
2026-05-23ScottsvilleTristan Godden41st0th+1
2026-03-22GreyvilleTristan Godden41st0th+1
2026-02-15ScottsvilleMxolisi Mbuto46th5th+1
2026-01-18GreyvilleTristan Godden41st0th+1
2025-12-14ScottsvilleMickaelle Michel53rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0714/1222/034/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 5-12 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength13%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/07/20255th4/179%43%-0.36
24/08/20253rd14/126%80%+0.54
25/11/20254th14/126%63%+0.36
14/12/20253rd13/266%82%+0.16
18/01/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
15/02/20266th6/168%64%-0.04
22/03/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
23/05/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
04/07/202611th10/147%9%-0.38