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5

Maphaka

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 5 · OR 88

Greyville · Live It. Love It. Own It. www.racecoast.co.za B Stakes · 5f 212y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

97%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

4 wins from 8 runs this year. 28/10, career best when winning 9-runner minor event at this C&D (good to soft) 35 days ago. Booking of De Melo a plus.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength77%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Scottsville 14/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 5f212y GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS14/1244 @ Greyville 02/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 14/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS14/0144 @ Scottsville 11/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f212y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Greyville 13/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Std 12613/05C53 @ Greyville 12/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Std 120 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Greyville 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f212y GS 1267/08C5C5 @ Greyville 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Std 129C5 @ Greyville 25/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13225/09C5projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25GreyvilleS Veale?1st1st0
2026-08-21GreyvilleS Veale?1st1st0
2026-08-07GreyvilleS Veale?1st1st0
2026-07-12GreyvilleS Veale32nd0th+2
2026-05-13GreyvilleCraig Zackey?4th4th0
2026-03-11ScottsvilleS Veale41st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/1211/037/0825/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 78/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/12/20252nd3/184%93%+0.09
02/01/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04
14/01/20266th11/486%29%-0.57
11/03/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
13/05/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
12/07/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
07/08/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
21/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
25/09/20261st3/184%100%+0.16