9
Captain's Christy
6yo Mare · 10-3 · Draw 9 · OR 69
Greyville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 4 (F & M) · 4f 214y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Greyville | Qiniso Ngcobo | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-09-21 | Scottsville | Qiniso Ngcobo | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Greyville | Serino Moodley | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Greyville | Cole Dicken | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Greyville | Serino Moodley | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-18 | Scottsville | Serino Moodley | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 18/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 11/10/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |