2
Smart Choice
3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 2 · OR 55
Greyville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 4 (F & M) · 4f 214y
#6
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | Mathew Thackeray | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Greyville | Tristan Godden | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-04-26 | Scottsville | Mathew Thackeray | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Greyville | Tristan Godden | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Scottsville | Mickaelle Michel | ? | 9th | 14th | −4 |
| 2026-01-11 | Scottsville | Mathew Thackeray | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 63/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength4%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 63% | -0.29 |
| 11/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 18/02/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 47% | -0.32 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |