10
Theleia
4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 10 · OR 58
Greyville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 4 (F & M) · 4f 214y
#8
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Greyville | Serino Moodley | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Scottsville | Serino Moodley | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-07-19 | Scottsville | Serino Moodley | ? | 7th | 12th | −4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kenilworth | K De Melo | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Durbanville | Craig Zackey | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Durbanville | A Domeyer | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 46% | -0.42 |
| 17/12/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 24/09/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |