1
Tuscan Romance
5yo Mare · 9-8 · Draw 1 · OR 76
Greyville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 4 (F & M) · 4f 214y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Greyville | S Veale | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Vaal | Kabelo Matsunyane | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-01-03 | Turffontein | Kabelo Matsunyane | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-04 | Turffontein | Kabelo Matsunyane | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Turffontein | Luyolo Mxothwa | ? | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-09-30 | Vaal | Callan Murray | ? | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 9th | 2/1 | 89% | 38% | -0.51 |
| 17/05/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |
| 08/06/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 93% | +0.07 |
| 04/12/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 10/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 02/10/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |