Gustavia
2yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 2 · OR 58
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Gulfstream | Samy Camacho | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | Gulfstream | Diego Herrera | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | Samuel Marin | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Saratoga | Luis Saez | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 25/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 11/10/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |