Bert's Knoty Girl
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 85
Gulfstream · Race 10 - Cellars Shiraz Stakes · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Gulfstream | Pedro Pena | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-22 | Gulfstream | Pedro Pena | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | Joe Bravo | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gulfstream | Romero Maragh | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Gulfstream | Corey Lanerie | BHA88 | 7th | 12th | −4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Gulfstream | Yolber Torres | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/10/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 03/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 31/01/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/03/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 02/10/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |