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10

Rogue Runner

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 10 · OR 93

Gulfstream · Race 10 - Cellars Shiraz Stakes · 1m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Gulfstream 27/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 80 · 5f Fm 120 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 80 par27/03C7OR 80C5 @ Gulfstream 10/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 85 · 5f 120 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 85 parC7 @ Gulfstream 24/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 79 · 5f Fm 122 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 79 par24/04C7OR 79C5 @ Gulfstream 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 1m110y Gd 120 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Gulfstream 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 1m70y Fas 120 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 78 par12/06C5OR 78C7 @ Gulfstream 04/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 84 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 84 parC5 @ Gulfstream 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 87 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 87 par16/08C5OR 87C6 @ Gulfstream 06/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 89 · 1m Slo 120 · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 89 parC7 @ Gulfstream 02/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 90 · 1m 120 · beat its mark02/10/2026 · OR 90 par2/10C7OR 90projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02GulfstreamMiguel Vasquez?1st3rd−2
2026-09-06GulfstreamMiguel Vasquez?3rd4th−1
2026-08-16GulfstreamMiguel Vasquez?2nd3rd−1
2026-07-04GulfstreamJose Morelos?6th8th−2
2026-06-12GulfstreamJose Morelos?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-15GulfstreamJose Morelos?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0315/0516/082/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength34%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/03/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
10/04/20266th15/890%17%-0.73
24/04/20262nd11/271%83%+0.12
15/05/20265th11/271%43%-0.28
12/06/20262nd16/116%83%+0.68
04/07/20266th3/184%17%-0.68
16/08/20262nd5/174%88%+0.14
06/09/20263rd11/271%67%-0.04
02/10/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06